The Numbers Every Home Improvement Contractor Should Have on One Page: Part 1

The Headline Number That Hides the Real Story

NAHB's Remodeling Market Index came in at 61 in the second quarter of 2026, holding in the low 60s for the past year — one of the clearest readouts the home improvement industry gets on where confidence actually sits. Current conditions read 70. Future indicators read 52, and leads and inquiries inside that number fell to 51, barely above break-even.

Contractors are busy with work already on the books. They're not confident about what refills the pipeline next.

Spending Has Plateaued, Competition Has Not

Total home improvement spending isn't growing or shrinking right now, and that holds into next year. Growth for your firm has to come out of a competitor's share, not a bigger market.

Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies projects homeowner spending on improvements and repairs at $523 billion by early 2027. Growth is slowing each quarter: 1.8 percent in mid-2026, 1.6 percent by year end, 0.5 percent by the first quarter of 2027. Existing home sales sit near a thirty-year low, about 4 000 000 a year, against 6.1 million in 2021.

If your lead volume feels softer than last year, this is why. It's not your marketing.

The Floor Under Demand Is the Housing Stock

A growing share of American aging housing stock has reached the point where major components stop being optional. That's what keeps replacement work flowing even when confidence is weak.

The median US home is 44 years old, up from 39 in 2013. One in four owners, about 22 million households, lives in a home built before 1960. In those homes, replacing components, systems, and equipment makes up 39 percent of improvement spending, against 24 percent in homes built since 2010.

Owners 65 and over now account for 27 percent of total improvement spending, roughly double their share two decades ago, mostly in bathrooms, accessibility work, and home systems. That's steady, recession-resistant demand no matter what the economy does.

Need and Ability to Pay Have Come Apart

This is where most territory and lead-qualification logic breaks down. Housing age used to be a decent proxy for who'd commission work. It isn't anymore. Income predicts it far better than condition does.

Among owners of pre-1960 homes, the highest income quintile spent an average of $12,700 on improvements in 2023. The lowest spent $3,400. Same age of house, nearly a four-to-one gap.

Higher-income owners of post-2010 homes, which need less work, still outspent lower-income owners of the oldest homes by more than two to one. Meanwhile, 2.9 million owner households live in homes HUD classifies as moderately or severely inadequate. That share hits 5.4 percent in pre-1960 homes against 1.3 percent in newer stock.

What this means for you: stop qualifying territory or leads on housing age alone. An old house tells you the work is needed. It tells you nothing about whether the owner can pay for it. The home improvement industry statistics here point in the same direction: Income and equity are the signals that matter now.